Events at CERGE-EI

Prof. Söhnke M. Bartram

Warwick Business School, United Kingdom

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Author: Söhnke M. Bartram

Abstract: Using real-time data, currency anomalies are profitable during in-sample and out-of-sample periods both before and after transaction costs, but trading profits decrease substantially after the publication of the academic research. The decline is greater for anomalies with larger in-sample profits and lower arbitrage costs, and signal ranks and performance decay quickly, suggesting that currency anomalies reflect mispricing rather than compensation for risk or statistical bias. Mispricing is systematically related to mistakes and changes in analysts’ currency forecasts. In particular, analysts expect anomaly payoffs that are too low or even negative compared to actual anomaly profits. While analysts’ mistakes decrease after anomaly publication and analysts update their forecasts to incorporate lagged anomaly information, trading profits from mispricing are more than three times those using analysts’ forecasts. These results are consistent with a behavioral explanation for currency anomalies.
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