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14:00 | Special Event
Forum 2000: "What Role for Economic Literacy in Democratic Reform? "
From Tahir to Maidan to the Parthenon, governments struggle to reconcile the demands of their population with the realities of the global marketplace. How can societies reconcile democratic governance with often unrealistic expectations for immediate gratification? What can educators and civil society do to create the broad-based economic literacy required to reconcile free and fair elections with the often painful strategies necessary for long-term growth?
On Monday 14th September at 1400 CET, Randall Filer, President of the CERGE-EI Foundation moderates a panel of leading economists with broad public policy experience at the Forum 2000 annual conference in Prague. Joining Professor Filer on the conference platform are:
- Professor Nicos Christodoulakis, Minister of Economic Development, Greece; Professor of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business
- Oleg Derevianko, Deputy Minister for Education, Ukraine
- Dr. Ahmed Galal, Director of Economic Research Forum; Former Finance Minister, Egypt
- Dr. Sandra Švaljek, Research Associate, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb; Former Deputy Mayor of Zagreb
Follow the panel as it is streamed live!
16:30 | Applied Micro Research Seminar
ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich), Center for Law and Economics, Switzerland
Abstract: The voting literature has largely analyzed voter turnout and voter behavior separately, with a focus on individual election outcomes. This is in spite of the fact that multiple elections are on one ballot, and turnout is determined by participation in all elections. I present a model of voter turnout and behavior in multiple elections. The assumptions are consistent with individual election preferences and decision is derived from utility maximization. I also provide necessary moment conditions for identification. The framework is applied to analyze turnout and voting choices in the 2008 California elections for the US presidential election and Proposition 8 ballot initiative. The exit polls and initial election results made national headlines by linking the historic turnout of African-Americans for Presidential candidate Obama in helping pass Proposition 8. I structurally estimate the demographic preferences for each of the election choices. I find that the African-American turnout and voting share for Proposition 8 was lower than predicted by the exit polls. As a counterfactual, I use the estimated model to look at the turnout and outcome of Proposition 8, without the presidential race on the ballot. As predicted by the model and estimates, I find lower voter turnout that are on par with midterm elections. I also find a lower share of Yes votes on Proposition 8 – enough that the referendum would not have passed.
