Events at CERGE-EI
Wednesday, 10 December, 2025 | 11:30 | Room 402 | Job Talk Seminar
Alaitz Ayarza (University of the Basque Country) "Determinants of Migration Choices: The Role of Beliefs about Career and Non-Career Outcomes"
University of the Basque Country, Spain
Abstract: Using original survey data on subjective expectations, I examine how expected career and non-career returns shape migration choices among highly educated young adults from lagging regions in advanced economies. I document strong trade-offs between professional and personal life returns across three counterfactual migration scenarios. A life-cycle utility model shows that non-career factors drive migration choices and welfare, explaining why short-term migration is preferred over long-term migration. Removing short-term migration benefits shifts more short-term migrants to staying than to long-term migration, with responses varying by ability. Policy simulations show promoting short-term migration is three times more cost-effective for high-ability stayers than long-term migrants. A follow-up survey confirms that initial expectations strongly predict realized migration choices and outcomes.
Keywords: Migration choices; return migration; subjective expectations.
JEL Codes: D81, D84, J61, R23
Full Text: Determinants of Migration Choices: The Role of Beliefs about Career and Non-Career Outcomes
